Digitisation has had a profound impact on us and on our lives, including mobility. Old and often cherished certainties are becoming obsolete and many things are still uncertain. But one thing is clear: in 100 years’ time, our society’s prosperity, health, education and culture will continue to depend heavily on infrastructure and be directly linked to available, sustainable, safe and reliable mobility. As a specialised road traffic platform, our task is to help shape the mobility of the future and make roads fit for the future.
Automated driving opens up new perspectives: the future of mobility is smart. The task of the Swiss Federal Roads Office (FEDRO) is to exploit the potential of digitalisation and automation as effectively as possible. With the revision of the Road Traffic Act and the Automated Driving Ordinance (AFV) (currently under consultation), the Swiss Parliament and the Federal Council have made a clear commitment to this mega trend. The potential of conditional and highly automated vehicles (automation levels 3 and 4) will be able to be deployed in real-life conditions on Swiss roads as early as 2025.
“SAAM is making an important contribution to automated driving in Switzerland.”
By 2060, fully automated vehicles (automation level 5) could become an indispensable reality for the mobility of tomorrow, as was impressively demonstrated by the “Transport of the Future 2060” study published by FEDRO. The study outlines three future scenarios: “Revolution of collective mobility services”, “Revolution of individual mobility services” and “Evolution without disruption”. Automated vehicles will play a key role in all three scenarios.
By 2060, the number of kilometres travelled in passenger transport is expected to increase by 30 to 40 percent compared to 2015. It is therefore essential to systematically maintain the existing infrastructure. Automated vehicles will help to make better use of existing roads. A a positive side effect: accidents, which currently cause of over 10 per cent of all traffic jams, will be reduced to a minimum.
In the “Revolution of collective mobility services” scenario, the authors of the study envisage that driverless shuttles, buses and trains could meet up to 70 per cent of our mobility needs. Cars and traditional public transport would lose dominance. Because, for example, politicians and society would no longer need to provide an expensive public transport service for a region or neighbourhood. Instead, they would simply have to ensure accessibility.
The “Revolution of individual mobility services” scenario predicts that households will not own their own cars. But cars would still be used as families would rely on a network of driverless taxis to get around. The high level of comfort, and the fact you’re alone in your vehicle without having to drive it, would almost double the number of kilometres travelled by cars compared to 2015. In the “Evolution without disruption” scenario, the researchers assume that there will not be any major changes in either direction. This would mean that private households would still predominantly own their own vehicles and that the emotional attachment to having one’s own car would still be important.
The idea that automated vehicles could be constantly on the move, covering one journey after another, is an impressive one. It would make for highly efficient mobility and could lead to a significant reduction in costs: the study assumes around 80 per cent less than today.
The three scenarios make it clear that the mobility of the future faces important and exciting challenges. I am convinced that automated driving will shape the mobility of the future. But to what extent and in what form remain to be seen, as society and politics will need and want to get involved. It is important for us as a society to prepare for the automation megatrend and set out on this journey together. As a specialist department, we must ensure that the infrastructure and legislation are geared towards supporting these new technologies. The potential in terms of efficiency, costs, safety and availability is simply too promising to ignore.
Organisations such as SAAM are deserving of our sincere thanks, because it will only be possible to ensure the acceptance of new technologies and offers if there are more organisations such as this. Widespread social acceptance is also an absolute prerequisite for this.
I look forward to the upcoming changes in mobility to ensure greater safety, improved compatibility and increased availability together with lower costs. I am particularly looking forward to the journey that we will be embarking on together with associates such as SAAM.
Jürg Röthlisberger Director, FEDRO
Follow us on LinkedIn to stay
up-to-date with SAAM news!
